Some of the conclusions in this report are intended to be generalizations. The information in this report is deemed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Unauthorized distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. This report is the confidential work product of Matter Family Office. We wish you all a happy, healthy and safe holiday! During this holiday season we also want to take the time to say thank you for the opportunity we have every day to work with your families. At this point, we do not see anything that is causing us to alter our course, but rest assured we are spending a lot of time in the Crow’s Nest. Here we find ourselves, at the balance between optimism and caution, looking for both the sunrise and icebergs on the horizon. In short, we are not only becoming more efficient, but we also have the opportunity to improve quality of life through innovation and the overall improvement of the goods being produced. shale production drop from around $60 per barrel in 2014 to just above $40 per barrel in 2017. Even in one of the more recently beleaguered industries, Energy, we have seen the average cost of U.S. We have become more efficient producers as well. The increases are not just on the consumer end. We need look no further than the relatively recent phenomena of Cyber Monday as analysts expected sales this past Monday to top $6 billion-a far cry from the ~$500 million in online sales when the term originated in 2005. There are many examples of industries and behaviors that are being transformed by technology. So when we caution families to prepare for muted returns going forward, how can we avoid feeling like the investment reincarnation of the Grinch, peering down the mountain at all of the strong returns and seeing only caution in our outlook? To be fair, optimism isn’t all lost as we recognize that we are at a point in time when innovation and technology could be setting the stage for a prolonged period of real growth. The primary factors that contribute to this perspective are higher equity valuations, low global growth, and rising interest rates that will be a headwind for bond portfolios. Some might argue we are borrowing future returns into the present. While we are encouraged by specific trends, and the momentum in the equity markets is overwhelmingly positive, disciplined statistical analysis suggests returns may be getting ahead of themselves. The question we are left asking is, what does this mean as we look forward? This research report by our colleagues at Asset Consulting Group dissects one of our shared Investment Themes we have been discussing with our families during the past several years (but have not yet seen come to fruition): the long term view of muted returns going forward. Either way, we can look back at the year and acknowledge that the results have turned out better than most would have expected heading into the year. Unemployment, while continuing to decline, has not led to significant increases in wage growth. While GDP growth has improved in the U.S., it is off a weaker base than what we have seen in the past. This strong performance is admittedly unexpected (and somewhat confusing) as economic indicators are mixed. Time sure does fly when you’re having fun, and the markets are up! Indeed, investors have cause to celebrate, as global stocks are up over 20% for the year, with emerging market stocks leading the way. We explore potential mechanisms and provide reasons for both optimism and caution towards ethnic balancing in deeply divided societies.It is hard to believe that we are nearing the end of 2017. We show that this effect is not driven by heterogeneity, but rather by the presence of minority police officers per se. We also find, however, that teams with minority police officers are more rather than less discriminatory against minority civilians-a substantively large and highly statistically significant adverse effect. We find that teams that include minority police officers are no more or less cooperative than those that do not, and that heterogeneous teams are no more or less cooperative than homogeneous ones.
We test these predictions against each other using surveys and lab-in-the-field experiments implemented with teams of Liberian National Police officers.
Advocates argue that “ethnic balancing” reduces discrimination opponents counter that it erodes unit cohesion. Peace agreements often include provisions for integrating minority ethnic groups into security sector institutions.
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